"""Three price-evidence charts: full log history, drawdowns, current cycle. Slides: "First, the Asset Everyone Asks About" (fig_btc_log), "...and Traders' 'Price Halving' Is a Regular Event" (fig_btc_drawdown), "The Current Cycle" (fig_btc_recent). Data: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD daily closes (snapshots data/btc_daily.json, data/eth_daily.json), collapsed to monthly (last close per month). Pre-2014 landmarks on the log chart are documented prices (Mt. Gox $0.06 Jul 2010; $1 parity Feb 2011; $13 Jan 2013; $1,100 Nov 2013). These charts keep their original (Aug 12) palette, distinct from the GT-palette charts made later. """ import datetime import json import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from common import BLUE, ORANGE, INK, MUTED, GRID, save, cached_fetch plt.rcParams.update({'font.size': 12}) def load(name, symbol): raw = cached_fetch(name, f'https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/' f'{symbol}?period1=1279317600&period2=9999999999' f'&interval=1d') d = json.loads(raw)['chart']['result'][0] out = [(datetime.date.fromtimestamp(t), p) for t, p in zip(d['timestamp'], d['indicators']['quote'][0]['close']) if p] monthly = {} for dt, p in out: monthly[(dt.year, dt.month)] = (dt, p) pairs = [v for _, v in sorted(monthly.items())] return [d for d, _ in pairs], [p for _, p in pairs] bd, bp = load('btc_daily.json', 'BTC-USD') ed, ep = load('eth_daily.json', 'ETH-USD') def style_ax(ax): ax.set_facecolor('white') for s in ['top', 'right']: ax.spines[s].set_visible(False) for s in ['left', 'bottom']: ax.spines[s].set_color(GRID) ax.grid(axis='y', color=GRID, lw=0.8) ax.set_axisbelow(True) ax.tick_params(colors=MUTED, labelsize=11) # ---- 1. full history, log scale, pre-2014 landmarks dotted ---- fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10.5, 5.4), dpi=200) early_d = [datetime.date(2010, 7, 18), datetime.date(2011, 2, 9), datetime.date(2013, 1, 1), datetime.date(2013, 11, 29)] early_p = [0.06, 1.0, 13.0, 1100.0] ax.plot(early_d + [bd[0]], early_p + [bp[0]], color=BLUE, lw=2, ls=(0, (2, 3))) ax.plot(bd, bp, color=BLUE, lw=2) ax.set_yscale('log') style_ax(ax) ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter( lambda v, _: f'${v:,.2f}' if v < 1 else f'${v:,.0f}') for d, p, txt, dy in [(early_d[0], 0.06, 'First exchange price: $0.06\n(Mt. Gox, Jul 2010)', 18), (early_d[1], 1.0, '$1 parity (Feb 2011)', 14), (bd[bp.index(max(bp))], max(bp), f'All-time high: ${max(bp):,.0f}', 10), (bd[-1], bp[-1], f'Today: ${bp[-1]:,.0f}', -26)]: ax.annotate(txt, (d, p), textcoords='offset points', xytext=(6, dy), fontsize=10, color=INK) ax.set_title('Bitcoin price, 2010–2026 (log scale) — up ~1,000,000× from ' 'its first exchange price', fontsize=13, color=INK, loc='left', pad=12) ax.text(0.0, -0.13, 'Monthly closes, Yahoo Finance (2014–). Dotted: ' 'documented landmark prices pre-2014.', transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=8.5, color=MUTED) fig.tight_layout() save(fig, 'fig_btc_log.png') # ---- 2. drawdown from running peak ---- dd, mx = [], 0 for p in bp: mx = max(mx, p) dd.append(100 * (p / mx - 1)) fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10.5, 5.4), dpi=200) ax.fill_between(bd, dd, 0, color=BLUE, alpha=0.18, lw=0) ax.plot(bd, dd, color=BLUE, lw=2) ax.axhline(-50, color=MUTED, lw=1.2, ls=(0, (4, 3))) ax.text(bd[2], -54.5, 'price cut in half', fontsize=10, color=MUTED) style_ax(ax) ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.0f}%') eps, cur = [], None for dt, v in zip(bd, dd): if v <= -50 and cur is None: cur = [dt, v, dt] elif cur is not None and v <= -50: if v < cur[1]: cur[1], cur[2] = v, dt elif cur is not None and v > -33: eps.append(cur) cur = None if cur: eps.append(cur) for d0, v, dmin in eps: ax.annotate(f'{dmin.year}: {v:.0f}%', (dmin, v), textcoords='offset points', xytext=(-16, -15), fontsize=10, color=INK) ax.annotate(f'today: {dd[-1]:.0f}%', (bd[-1], dd[-1]), textcoords='offset points', xytext=(-4, 10), fontsize=10, color=INK) ax.set_ylim(-95, 8) ax.set_title(f'Drawdown from prior peak — Bitcoin has halved in price ' f'{len(eps)} times since 2014 (and is close again now)', fontsize=12.5, color=INK, loc='left', pad=12) ax.text(0.0, -0.13, 'Monthly closes, Yahoo Finance. Drawdown = % below prior ' 'all-time-high close. The 2011 (−93%) and 2013–15 episodes predate ' 'the series.', transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=8.5, color=MUTED) fig.tight_layout() save(fig, 'fig_btc_drawdown.png') print(' episodes:', [(e[2].isoformat(), round(e[1])) for e in eps], '| today:', round(dd[-1])) # ---- 3. BTC vs ETH indexed to 100 at Jan 2024 ---- start = datetime.date(2024, 1, 1) def index_from(dates, prices): base = next(p for d, p in zip(dates, prices) if d >= start) return [(d, 100 * p / base) for d, p in zip(dates, prices) if d >= start] bi, ei = index_from(bd, bp), index_from(ed, ep) fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10.5, 5.4), dpi=200) ax.plot([d for d, _ in bi], [v for _, v in bi], color=BLUE, lw=2) ax.plot([d for d, _ in ei], [v for _, v in ei], color=ORANGE, lw=2) ax.axhline(100, color=GRID, lw=1) style_ax(ax) ax.annotate(f'Bitcoin ({100 * (bp[-1] / max(bp) - 1):.0f}% from ATH)', (bi[-1][0], bi[-1][1]), textcoords='offset points', xytext=(8, 0), fontsize=11, color=BLUE, fontweight='bold') ax.annotate(f'Ether ({100 * (ep[-1] / max(ep) - 1):.0f}% from ATH)', (ei[-1][0], ei[-1][1]), textcoords='offset points', xytext=(8, -6), fontsize=11, color=ORANGE, fontweight='bold') ax.set_xlim(start, datetime.date(2027, 5, 1)) ax.set_title('The current cycle: major cryptocurrencies, indexed to 100 at ' 'Jan 2024', fontsize=13, color=INK, loc='left', pad=12) ax.text(0.0, -0.13, 'Monthly closes, Yahoo Finance, through Aug 2026.', transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=8.5, color=MUTED) fig.tight_layout() save(fig, 'fig_btc_recent.png')